The S&P is now trading at 1125 (its 2009 high!). Since early November, SPX has been very range bound: between 1090 and 1110. This is a great move but it is occurring on a low volume week, so hopefully it stands when normal volume resumes in early January. Using historical secular bear market recovery rally averages the S&P has another 10-15% left (using historical averages). That would imply 1250 ish. After a collapse of approximately 38% last year for the SPX a 25% return this year is a breath of fresh air – but still leaves us 28% below the peak, and at the exact same level as early 1998. A full decade of zero returns … and for all the gut wrenching twists and turns that the stock markets provided investors in this decade, you figured they would be rewarded!!!
Globally, developed markets are also hitting their 2009 highs:
DAX (Germany) at 5957 – up 27% (in US$), CAC 40 (France) at 3912 – up 25% (in US$), FTSE 100 (UK) – up 33% (in US$), Nikkei 225 (Japan) is almost at its 2009 high at 10536 – up 18% (in US$)
Interestingly, Emerging Markets are mostly below their 2009 highs (though of course these have surged ahead of developed markets) :
Bovespa (Brazil) is down 5% from its ’09 peak – but up 137% (in US$), Shanghai A Shares (China) is down 9% – but up 78% (in US$), RTSI (Russia) is down 4% – but up 121% (in US$)